TL;DRussia Rapid Reaction: Tick, tick, tick...
16 May 2025: Well, that was uninspiring
I’ve said this before, and I’m sure I’ll have cause to say it again, but here’s the truth of the matter:
The negotiations that will end the war in Ukraine don’t involve Russia.
Yes, at some point, someone will have to sit down with Putin or whoever he delegates and decide the modalities of a ceasefire, map out a line of control, yadda yadda yadda. But that’s the end of the process, not the beginning. Getting to that point requires two things: Ukraine believing it is secure, and Russia understanding that Ukraine is so secure, that any further fighting is futile.
No negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could possibly deliver security to Ukraine. Even if there’s a regime change in Moscow and some remarkably progressive Russian president emerges, hands back all of the occupied territories and pays out reparations, it will be decades if not generations before the Ukrainian public and the politicians who represent them stake their security on a promise from the Kremlin.
Likewise, no words from Trump or anyone else will make Putin understand that the jig is up. At least, not words spoken to Putin.
No, the conversation that matters is the one that has always mattered: between Kyiv and the West. Only Western leaders—and at this point, I mean European leaders—can provide security to Ukraine. And only a deep investment in Ukraine’s security can convince Putin that there’s no sense in fighting on.
So as I told Times Radio this morning, the conversation that really matters is the one that needs to happen between Zelensky and his European allies:
I’m not sure about the “crush Russia” part of that headline—those certainly weren’t my words—but the “biding time” part is right. Key European leaders, particularly Kier Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, along with Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas and Andrius Kubilius, know what they want to do: put together a military force capable of deterring further Russian aggression, and deploy it in the defense of Ukraine. But in both political and material terms, they don’t yet know how to do it.
I wrote a couple of days ago that Putin was playing for time, trying to keep Trump engaged just long enough for him to extract as many concessions as he possibly can, but not so long that the Europeans finally get their ducks in a row. The flipside of that is that Zelensky is also playing for time, trying to ensure that Trump and Putin don’t do a deal over his and his allies’ heads, and giving those allies time to get themselves sorted out. So far, he seems to be doing that rather well.
As Ollie Carroll reported, the meetings delivered two things:
A goodwill gesture, in the form of a promise to swap 1,000 Ukrainian prisoners for 1,000 Russian ones; and
Absurd belligerence from the Russian delegation, in particular Vladimir Medinsky, who, ersatz historian that he is, reminded Zelensky that Russia fought Sweden for 21 years and has the patience to do it again (never mind that they had help from Poland and Denmark, and that it was more than 300 years ago — and, by the way, if Ukraine doesn’t withdraw troops from territory Russia doesn’t control, Russia will claim even more territory.
Both of those are exactly what Zelensky needed: a demonstration that of the two parties in this war, he is the only one being reasonable. (To be clear: that’s a demonstration to Trump. No one else needs to be told.)
In 2025, of course, that’s not a guarantee of anything. Trump will now go and seek his meeting with Putin, firm in the belief that only that can deliver an end to the war. It won’t, of course. But if Trump talking to Putin creates the space for Europe to do what it needs to do, maybe the war can, finally, stop.
In any case, those are my thoughts for now. For somewhat more expansive ponderings, watch the Times Radio clip above, and the clip from PRX’s The World below…
…or this one, from BBC Radio 5 Live.
Uninspiring, indeed. But I fear that, given Trump's bromance with Putin, there's little chance that he'll agree to cutting Putin out of negotiations, even if he can be made to understand that Putin doesn't negotiate in good faith. Of course, not negotiating in good faith is a trait both men share.