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August F Siemon's avatar

I generally agree with what you say here. For Ukraine, Harris is better than Trump but neither can be counted on to give Ukraine what it needs. I also think that it matters which part of congress the Republican party controls. (hopefully not both!) I think it will be better (for Ukraine) if the Democrats control the House and if Republicans do win one of the chambers, it is the Senate. This is because there is still a wing of the Republican party in the Senate that is strong on national defense and recognizes Russia as a threat so it may be at least possible to form a coalition in the Senate in favor of some aid to Ukraine. It will also be interesting to see how the Republican party responds to a Trump loss. Trump will be to old to run again in 2028 and so as his influence wanes there may be a reversion to at least some of the more traditional Republican orthodoxy.

I think it is past time to recognize that if Ukraine is to succeed it is going to be because Europe accepts that their collective security is going to depend on what they do to protect themselves, especially if Trump wins. But as you set out, a Harris win is not a guarentee of a continuation of the extensive security umbrella the US has provided since the 1940s. Hopefully, Europe and the US will continue to have a defense alignment, it would seem to be in the best interests of both, but Europe can no longer count on the US providing the great share of the European defense burden. That being said, the greatest current threat to European security is Russia and Russia is right now on the verge of a decisive defeat in Ukraine if Europe recognizes the oppurtunity and responds accordingly. This oppurtunity is fleeting and in fact could be starting to close. Is Europe up to the task? That is the question in my mind.

I think if Harris does win

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Mika Riikonen's avatar

Trump is highly susceptible to many types of manipulation (flattery, threat of humiliation....), and hence also easily influenced not only by Putin, but also by Western leaders. He barks a LOT - but rarely bites. The NATO Summit '18 is a good example.

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