Thank you for your analysis today and your refusal to speculate in yesterday's post. Your and Lawrence Freedman's takes on these events are my most sought and proved to be most useful, especially compared to the 'analysis provided by many of the usual talking heads.
Hello. I read with interest of the form of government you described that a new leader would have to utilize. That is, one of patronage and flow of wealth for the elites. While I am sure you are correct, the government described seems so medieval. I guess other successful governments, such Saudi Arabia and China, might run on a patronage system, no matter how medieval.
Where does it go from here? Ostensibly Wagner and Prigozhin go back to base, wherever that might be, and from there to Belarus with no penalties or repercussions.
Presumably the intent is to separate Wagner forces from the regular army and other mercenary bands, to prevent either fighting or the spread of contagion. However, who in the Russian Defense military will trust Wagner after this? Yet these are the most effective fighters at their disposal, and Prigozhin's means of paying them is now in government hands.
Thank you for your analysis today and your refusal to speculate in yesterday's post. Your and Lawrence Freedman's takes on these events are my most sought and proved to be most useful, especially compared to the 'analysis provided by many of the usual talking heads.
The Institute for the Study of War has some interesting 'scoops' - though possibly speculation?
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023
Hello. I read with interest of the form of government you described that a new leader would have to utilize. That is, one of patronage and flow of wealth for the elites. While I am sure you are correct, the government described seems so medieval. I guess other successful governments, such Saudi Arabia and China, might run on a patronage system, no matter how medieval.
Where does it go from here? Ostensibly Wagner and Prigozhin go back to base, wherever that might be, and from there to Belarus with no penalties or repercussions.
Presumably the intent is to separate Wagner forces from the regular army and other mercenary bands, to prevent either fighting or the spread of contagion. However, who in the Russian Defense military will trust Wagner after this? Yet these are the most effective fighters at their disposal, and Prigozhin's means of paying them is now in government hands.
Perhaps something can be worked out...