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Russia is always open for a solution which leaves Ukraine unable to join the West. And only such a solution will do. It may mean continuing a hot war, a frozen conflict, a cease-fire, a truce or even a peace accord - but only if Ukraine remains out of EU/NATO.

Russia will choose the best of the above options based on how it fares in the battlefield and subsequent negotiations, but it won't let Ukraine go away.

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Perhaps Olaf Scholz has already called Miami-based financier Stephen Lynch to partner up on the Nordstream pipeline...

Thanks for your analysis, as always. Would love to hear your thoughts about Putin's increasing reliance on foreign mercenaries/troops following the news this weekend that Yemeni soldiers are now joining the fight. I can imagine a somewhat endless supply of global potential manpower he could draw from if it means he can avoid or postpone implementing conscription in Russia.

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