Your comments on the pointlessness of trying to get into Putin’s and Trump’s heads is very timely. Particularly in relation to how it prevents thought and ACTIONS that we can take that truly help Ukraine and support our own interests and values. It’s an argument I had with several friends in the first year of the full scale invasion. The task was to put Ukraine first, to learn everything we could about their history and to recognise that they were open and reliable rather than unpredictable. Eventually they got the point. Hopefully Europe will not take so long to get out of being mesmerised and intimidated by what they cannot know and certainly shouldn’t trust.
Not into psychology but I think it's important to understand whether or not there is a joint position that Putin and Trump can seek to impose on Ukraine and Europe. I don't believe there is.
Everything Trump says seems to imply support for a truce, more or less on current lines, with an immediate payoff for the US, the end of sanctions on Russia, and all the other issues left for later. But that's far away from what Putin wants and needs: legal recognition of his purported annexations, including territory he doesn't yet hold, and neutralisation of Ukraine.
Putin would obviously plan to break a truce at an opportune time, and rebuild his army in the meantime. But that will only work if Russia can rearm faster than Ukraine + Europe and that now looks questionable to say the least. If the truce holds, Putin will have destroyed his army and impoverished Russia to gain a few ruined cities and a land bridge to Crimea.
So, I expect that Trump won't get the peace offer he is hoping for from Putin. At this point, predicting his response is a matter of psychology, so I will leave it there.
Thank you for the reminder not to overthink the two strongmen and their flurries of statements and actions. I got frustrated this past week reading countless headlines/posts, flustered at this or that statement, which we should all know by now, were likely a farce. Those guys thrive on keeping us off balance.
PS: The statements by Trump about how Zelenskyy should "just step down" are beyond appalling and patronizing. He/his goons really do think their opinions are gold.
Ruth Windle:
Your comments on the pointlessness of trying to get into Putin’s and Trump’s heads is very timely. Particularly in relation to how it prevents thought and ACTIONS that we can take that truly help Ukraine and support our own interests and values. It’s an argument I had with several friends in the first year of the full scale invasion. The task was to put Ukraine first, to learn everything we could about their history and to recognise that they were open and reliable rather than unpredictable. Eventually they got the point. Hopefully Europe will not take so long to get out of being mesmerised and intimidated by what they cannot know and certainly shouldn’t trust.
Not into psychology but I think it's important to understand whether or not there is a joint position that Putin and Trump can seek to impose on Ukraine and Europe. I don't believe there is.
Everything Trump says seems to imply support for a truce, more or less on current lines, with an immediate payoff for the US, the end of sanctions on Russia, and all the other issues left for later. But that's far away from what Putin wants and needs: legal recognition of his purported annexations, including territory he doesn't yet hold, and neutralisation of Ukraine.
Putin would obviously plan to break a truce at an opportune time, and rebuild his army in the meantime. But that will only work if Russia can rearm faster than Ukraine + Europe and that now looks questionable to say the least. If the truce holds, Putin will have destroyed his army and impoverished Russia to gain a few ruined cities and a land bridge to Crimea.
So, I expect that Trump won't get the peace offer he is hoping for from Putin. At this point, predicting his response is a matter of psychology, so I will leave it there.
A “Russia-friendly government in Kyiv” Will be as popular in Ukraine as a fart in a space-suit.
These are Russian pipe dreams, not Ukrainian.
Just as there are Americans who believe that Canadians should feel honored at being made the 51st state. (Elbows up!)
Thank you for the reminder not to overthink the two strongmen and their flurries of statements and actions. I got frustrated this past week reading countless headlines/posts, flustered at this or that statement, which we should all know by now, were likely a farce. Those guys thrive on keeping us off balance.
Another good article to complement Applebaum's was one by Timothy Garton Ash, found here: https://open.substack.com/pub/timothygartonash/p/america-the-horrible?r=71u79&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
PS: The statements by Trump about how Zelenskyy should "just step down" are beyond appalling and patronizing. He/his goons really do think their opinions are gold.