The response of Western Allies to Iranian missile attacks on Israel showed what they can do when determined to help defend another country under attack. They need to do the same for Ukraine to help defend its airspace, as a very minimum. That's not to derogate the military aid given so far, but Ukraine needs more, and Europe can't afford to allow Russia to achieve any of its ambitions in Ukraine, through aggression or any other means. International law *must prevail.
Europe has for too long deferred much of its defence to the USA. The chickens are now coming home to roost. It's time Europe took charge of its own destiny. Russia has moved to a war based economy. Europeans can't afford to close their eyes and carry on business as normal. More defence spending and preparation may in the long run avert being consumed by Putin's Russia.
That I am always grateful for your insightful, well-reasoned analyses is a given. Not having your knowledge, my only contribution here is to use Google Translate in hopes of understanding the lyrics of the song you shared; unfortunately, I'm not a Harry Potter-ite, so I can't decipher most references to that saga.
Tell this to Harry Potter if you ever meet him.
Harry, hi, how are you, mate?
I hope you haven't gone crazy there yet
Low bow to you from all our brethren
From these remote swamps
We're surrounded by Muggles
And their faces are so angry and impudent
And you, as always, are stuck in your England
By pushing the bolt onto the rest
Harry, come quickly, we need you
Otherwise the indestructible one is completely destroyed
From all the bald spots, from all the eyes
They pump out oil and gas
By God's will and according to plan
Soon we will all be led to the chopping block
You grab the magic stick
To move it between the eyes
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, I know what you will hear
Sharpening your skis in our region
What do we call you here, because you are
Will you take a single malt in duty-free?
Either on a broom or by tram
Blow to us here, we are walking around here
Under someone whose name we don't even mention
Even though it's Voldemort
Harry, the stands are empty, as you can see.
The fans will no longer raise hell
Nobody plays Quidditch anymore -
We're almost all extinct here
Muggles have gone completely nuts, Harry.
The world turned black from smoke and fumes
If you saw all these hari
You would break your glasses
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, I bid you farewell with this.
How to say... like a poet with a poet
Let me finish with one verse
Before you say: “Adju!”
Yesterday the king walked, all cool and proud
And the boy said: “But the king is naked!”
The boy's head was immediately broken off his leg.
And they sent him an article
Now he doesn't drink lemonade from a bottle
Now he sits either in Kresty or in Butyrka
Sometimes he wrinkles his forehead, sometimes he scratches his head
But he doesn’t understand why?
Why do we need all this, tell me, Potter Harry
Erase all edges from the philosopher's stone
Drinking beer, eating curry
And looking at the world from behind the curtains
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
I won't deny my fears are influencing what I think may happen with the Trump/Putin "talks." But one thing I don't see mentioned in the news coverage (please correct me if I've missed it) is *why* Trump is so keen on ending the war overnight. Call me cynical if you wish, but it seems clear his only motivations are money (getting US businesses and petrochemical companies back into the Russian markets), spite (throwing Zelenskyy under the bus), and wanting attention/stirring the pot (shamefully attending the May 9 parade in Moscow).
I'm hoping for Europe to quickly do the right thing and support Ukraine.
As always, thanks for your summary/links to resources.
The first part of the ‘Stack’ resonated. Lots of my favourite experts are falling into this trap and it risks damaging their mental health and reputations. I too have been drawn to trying to rationalise what these events mean. Having tried to make sense of this l eventually tried it from the standpoint that Trump genuinely seeks an ending to this war. This drew on my experience in mediations. This thinking might be worth sharing to see if it contributes to yours or merely marks me down as another victim of trying to get into Trumps head.
An important dichotomy in the peace process is that the US is attempting to fulfil the role of arbiter. Rubio said initially that this was an aim. This explains the playing down of Russian aggression and its crimes against humanity. You cannot be arbiter while poring value judgements into the public sphere denigrating the two counter parties. However l don’t think they can fulfil that role unless both parties to the conflict agree. Clearly the Ukrainians are questioning this at the moment, as they feel ‘out of the loop’. The way Trump responded seemed unlikely to build confidence within the Ukrainian government that the US is an honest broker. Indeed Pres Z resisted the US acting in this capacity today. That seems solvable to me if the US explains its approach to the Ukrainians better.
The dichotomy is that Putin will find it difficult to accept that the US is an honest broker of disputes. Instead Putin regards Ukraine as an American project, created or enabled in 2014 by the CIA. Putin therefore sees the Trump administration tired of the costs of the various former administration’s foreign policy and looking to exit from it. In the process a gap has opened up in the Atlantic Alliance, which promises to diminish Europe and enhance Russian influence within it. So Putin plays along trying to support Trump and widen the breach between the US and Europe. Furthermore the US may assist Russia in gaining strong influence over Ukraine for lower costs to Russia. In short Putin sees Trump as a situational ally , who wants to disengage from the Ukraine project and agree terms on the same.
Once the US and Russia realise their respective role’s and aims are disconnected, you are likely to see the process collapse. The key issue is Putin consistently wants to settle the (revised) security architecture of Europe, rejects cease fires and needs de facto control over Ukraine, via comprehensive peace agreement. In short it will be very difficult for the US to play honest broker and mediate when Russia sees them as the combatant, adversary and principal in the conflict. Added to which the US would really struggle to meet all these demands. Meanwhile UK and France are responding to the issue of a European force being deployed post hostilities. A point which is clearly a non-starter with the Kremlin ( for all the reasons outlined by Mike Kofman, it greatly complicates the ability of Russia to have that de facto control). Hopefully l am wrong about this but l am going to relax and just see how far each of the future events fits into my mind matrix of interpretation and focus on the post talks ‘deal’ collapse scenarios.
The response of Western Allies to Iranian missile attacks on Israel showed what they can do when determined to help defend another country under attack. They need to do the same for Ukraine to help defend its airspace, as a very minimum. That's not to derogate the military aid given so far, but Ukraine needs more, and Europe can't afford to allow Russia to achieve any of its ambitions in Ukraine, through aggression or any other means. International law *must prevail.
Europe has for too long deferred much of its defence to the USA. The chickens are now coming home to roost. It's time Europe took charge of its own destiny. Russia has moved to a war based economy. Europeans can't afford to close their eyes and carry on business as normal. More defence spending and preparation may in the long run avert being consumed by Putin's Russia.
I'm very much in the Starmer/Macron camp.
That I am always grateful for your insightful, well-reasoned analyses is a given. Not having your knowledge, my only contribution here is to use Google Translate in hopes of understanding the lyrics of the song you shared; unfortunately, I'm not a Harry Potter-ite, so I can't decipher most references to that saga.
Tell this to Harry Potter if you ever meet him.
Harry, hi, how are you, mate?
I hope you haven't gone crazy there yet
Low bow to you from all our brethren
From these remote swamps
We're surrounded by Muggles
And their faces are so angry and impudent
And you, as always, are stuck in your England
By pushing the bolt onto the rest
Harry, come quickly, we need you
Otherwise the indestructible one is completely destroyed
From all the bald spots, from all the eyes
They pump out oil and gas
By God's will and according to plan
Soon we will all be led to the chopping block
You grab the magic stick
To move it between the eyes
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, I know what you will hear
Sharpening your skis in our region
What do we call you here, because you are
Will you take a single malt in duty-free?
Either on a broom or by tram
Blow to us here, we are walking around here
Under someone whose name we don't even mention
Even though it's Voldemort
Harry, the stands are empty, as you can see.
The fans will no longer raise hell
Nobody plays Quidditch anymore -
We're almost all extinct here
Muggles have gone completely nuts, Harry.
The world turned black from smoke and fumes
If you saw all these hari
You would break your glasses
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, I bid you farewell with this.
How to say... like a poet with a poet
Let me finish with one verse
Before you say: “Adju!”
Yesterday the king walked, all cool and proud
And the boy said: “But the king is naked!”
The boy's head was immediately broken off his leg.
And they sent him an article
Now he doesn't drink lemonade from a bottle
Now he sits either in Kresty or in Butyrka
Sometimes he wrinkles his forehead, sometimes he scratches his head
But he doesn’t understand why?
Why do we need all this, tell me, Potter Harry
Erase all edges from the philosopher's stone
Drinking beer, eating curry
And looking at the world from behind the curtains
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
Harry, this isn't very normal.
Life is like a swing - sometimes it's in the middle, sometimes it's in the lane
So, buddy, bitcoins are mine.
Don't forget about us too
Don't forget and feel it, wizard
The way the collar presses on your neck
Don't forget us, do you hear, hermit
Sometimes leave Parnassus
I won't deny my fears are influencing what I think may happen with the Trump/Putin "talks." But one thing I don't see mentioned in the news coverage (please correct me if I've missed it) is *why* Trump is so keen on ending the war overnight. Call me cynical if you wish, but it seems clear his only motivations are money (getting US businesses and petrochemical companies back into the Russian markets), spite (throwing Zelenskyy under the bus), and wanting attention/stirring the pot (shamefully attending the May 9 parade in Moscow).
I'm hoping for Europe to quickly do the right thing and support Ukraine.
As always, thanks for your summary/links to resources.
Sam
The first part of the ‘Stack’ resonated. Lots of my favourite experts are falling into this trap and it risks damaging their mental health and reputations. I too have been drawn to trying to rationalise what these events mean. Having tried to make sense of this l eventually tried it from the standpoint that Trump genuinely seeks an ending to this war. This drew on my experience in mediations. This thinking might be worth sharing to see if it contributes to yours or merely marks me down as another victim of trying to get into Trumps head.
An important dichotomy in the peace process is that the US is attempting to fulfil the role of arbiter. Rubio said initially that this was an aim. This explains the playing down of Russian aggression and its crimes against humanity. You cannot be arbiter while poring value judgements into the public sphere denigrating the two counter parties. However l don’t think they can fulfil that role unless both parties to the conflict agree. Clearly the Ukrainians are questioning this at the moment, as they feel ‘out of the loop’. The way Trump responded seemed unlikely to build confidence within the Ukrainian government that the US is an honest broker. Indeed Pres Z resisted the US acting in this capacity today. That seems solvable to me if the US explains its approach to the Ukrainians better.
The dichotomy is that Putin will find it difficult to accept that the US is an honest broker of disputes. Instead Putin regards Ukraine as an American project, created or enabled in 2014 by the CIA. Putin therefore sees the Trump administration tired of the costs of the various former administration’s foreign policy and looking to exit from it. In the process a gap has opened up in the Atlantic Alliance, which promises to diminish Europe and enhance Russian influence within it. So Putin plays along trying to support Trump and widen the breach between the US and Europe. Furthermore the US may assist Russia in gaining strong influence over Ukraine for lower costs to Russia. In short Putin sees Trump as a situational ally , who wants to disengage from the Ukraine project and agree terms on the same.
Once the US and Russia realise their respective role’s and aims are disconnected, you are likely to see the process collapse. The key issue is Putin consistently wants to settle the (revised) security architecture of Europe, rejects cease fires and needs de facto control over Ukraine, via comprehensive peace agreement. In short it will be very difficult for the US to play honest broker and mediate when Russia sees them as the combatant, adversary and principal in the conflict. Added to which the US would really struggle to meet all these demands. Meanwhile UK and France are responding to the issue of a European force being deployed post hostilities. A point which is clearly a non-starter with the Kremlin ( for all the reasons outlined by Mike Kofman, it greatly complicates the ability of Russia to have that de facto control). Hopefully l am wrong about this but l am going to relax and just see how far each of the future events fits into my mind matrix of interpretation and focus on the post talks ‘deal’ collapse scenarios.